Now, if you look at the moves made from last seasons team to this years, in terms of pure numbers on defense there isn't much change. Francois Beauchemin being moved out allowed Keith Aulie a spot, Tomas Kaberle was exchanged (in a way) with John-Michael Liles, and Brett Lebda was turned into Cody Franson.
So while there isn't a change in the number of defenders brought in, there is arguably an increase in talent which, if you're Mike Komisarek, can't be good for your chances of hanging onto a top-six spot. At least, not based on the way he finished last season.
The only reason Komisarek was able to keep his 5-6 spot on the team was based on the fact Lebda was so bad. Komisarek sort of won the spot by default. But now with Franson in the mix, for a team that needs that big point-shot on the PP and offensive awareness in general, one assumes he'll have a spot secured in the top-six.
How about the other defenders? Well, Luke Schenn is an RFA and I guess there's a chance he could be dealt - but that's an extreme long-shot at best right now. He's a critical piece to the defensive puzzle. Dion Phaneuf is the captain and had a resurgence in the second-half of the season. John-Michael Liles is here for at least the short-term, and will bring a transition game that is much needed on this defense. And then you have someone like Carl Gunnarsson who managed big-minutes in the second-half of the season after a slow start. He's signed to a new deal and will be counted on to provide that strong two-way game.
So who's left? If the top-six is going to feature these names: Schenn, Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Liles, and Franson that leaves only one spot available.
But wait, there's Aulie! The big defender made his stamp last year on the team and will surely take a spot in the top-six... right? Not necessarily.
Aulie could very much start the season in the AHL. Because of his contract situation, Aulie has the freedom to pass to the AHL and NHL without being exposed on waivers. This will certainly play a factor (in my opinion) when it comes to the top-six. It allows Komisarek a spot in the bottom-six role to keep some of his value. We've seen waiver exempt players fall victim to this in the past.
Now, is it fair? Not really. Is there potential for Aulie to be in the top-six at the start of the year? Certainly. But there's also the possibility that Aulie stumbles a bit out of the gate as most second-year players do. That would open up a spot for Komisarek. But what if he doesn't stumble? What if he plays better than last year and the Maple Leafs keep him? What does that do for Mike Komisarek's value?
Think about it. He's a $4.5m cap hit and has only hurt his value over his tenure with the Maple Leafs, he also has three-years left on his contract. For him to not be in the top-six would only continue to lessen whatever value he currently has. My opinion, and it's shared with many Maple Leaf fans is that it would be nice if they could deal him, although he doesn't have to be moved..
But Burke has his work cut out for him based on that contract. Not only is it a heavy cap hit for his production, but it comes with a NMC (no-movement clause). Granted, there's a clause in the contract that requires him to submit a list of teams every June that he can be dealt to, but it's still a binding contract when everything is taken into consideration. Is there a team that would be interested? I'm sure there is. But is the interest mutual on Komisarek's part?
Burke would be wise to find a home for Komisarek in this fans eyes. He's not going to be a top-four here (unless he totally flips the switch on his play), and his contract is just going to burn cap-space if he doesn't find a top-six spot. His value, as far as I can tell, isn't going to get much better with the new additions made.
Not only that, but there may be some Toronto Marlies ready to take at least a depth role with the club. I think it's safe to say someone like Matt Lashoff can at least handle the type of low-minutes/depth role Komisarek filled last year. And what of some other defenders like Koribian Holzer, who have shown there just about ready to knock on an NHL position? He plays a similar defensive style to Komisarek and could likely handle low-minutes at the NHL level.
Even if a Marlie can't take Komisarek's spot right now, the Maple Leafs could sign a depth UFA to play a bottom-pairing/spare role. There are plenty of them out there that are certain to come cheaper than Komisarek's current price-tag and term. That way you give yourself a bit of a safety net if there are injuries and you aren't confident in a youngster stepping up.
Would it be nice as a fan to see him moved to give the Maple Leafs a bit more flexibility? Yes. Is there a desperate need to move him? No. Komisarek's contract isn't hurting the Maple Leafs right now - they have plenty of cap-space. But that's not the point.
The point is, as far as I can tell, he's not getting a starting spot unless someone really falls of the wagon in the top-six or is hurt early in the season. His value in this sense won't get any better. You can make the argument also that it can't get much worse, but I'm not sure which teams are willing to trade for a $4.5m, seventh defender on a non-playoff team with three-years left on his contract.
It'll be interesting to see how Burke handles the situation going forward. It seems this off-season he's been a little weary of handing out long-term, big dollar contracts so it may make sense to dump Komisarek if he can; if he's worried about the potential set-up of the new CBA.
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