Saturday, March 6, 2010

The Kaberle dilemma


With the trade deadline over, and names such as Alexei Ponikarovsky and Lee Stempniak gone from trade rumours, the focus shifts to the never-ending story of Tomas Kaberle's future as a Toronto Maple Leaf.

News broke on trade deadline day when it was reported that Kaberle would entertain the ideas of a trade. This was the first time Kaberle expressed a desire to be anywhere else but Toronto. It's not to say Kaberle wanted out, far from it, but the clause in his contract opens up the possibility to Kaberle to be dealt in the summer time to any team in the league.

On deadline day, Kaberle submitted a list of three teams that he would be openly willing to go to. Those teams are rumoured to be Eastern Conference teams, and likely one of the top seeded clubs. Guesses on my end would be Buffalo Sabers due to proximity to Toronto: he doesn't sound as if he wants to travel far. Washington would be another guess, seeing as they have a great young team. Washington likely had interest in Kaberle also given that they picked up Joe Corvo after it was announced that Kaberle wouldn't be traded. My final guess would probably be Pittsburgh -- defending cup champions and they look to be perennial contenders.

The next question is why a deal didn't get completed? Well first off, deals take time to hammer out. Burke may well have known a month ago where Kaberle would like to go if a trade offer was presented to him, but for the sake of an argument let's figure Kaberle approached Burke on the deadline and said "OK, I'll waive if it's to these three teams".

The problem with Kaberle's list is that it's way too short, and the time frame was unrealistic to complete a deal of this magnitude. It's also likely that Burke wanted a player capable of stepping into his lineup, likely a young top-six forward and a first round selection. It's hard to imagine a cup contending team would want to give away a top-six scorer for defensive help because unless you have a surplus of offensive talent, you need that scorer. The rumoured deal a few years ago about Jeff Carter + a 1st for Kaberle made sense given Kaberle was under contract long-term, and Philly could afford to move a 50pt Jeff Carter (at the time) as they had other established scorers on their team (and lacked a strong puck-mover like Kaberle).

Washington probably could have spared a top-six forward, but then the question would be are they willing to part with the player Burke would be interested in? Would Burke want a Tomas Fleischman in a deal for Kaberle or someone else?

So the question from now until the draft will be the future of Tomas Kaberle. If you look at the assets the Maple Leafs have, they have arguably 10 NHL defenders for next season excluding Kaberle: Komisarek, Finger, Gunnarsson, Schenn, Phaneuf, Beauchemin, Oreskovic, Mikus, Aluie, Holzer. Some being veterans, some prospects -- but depth none the less. What they do not have, is elite talent or high draft selections.

What type of return would Burke be looking for? Burke attempted to peddle Kaberle at last seasons draft for a top-ten selection, but teams were not biting. Due to Kaberle's strong season, he may get someone to nab Kaberle, but it's unlikely he'll land a top-ten pick for a 30+ year old.

Burke knows Kaberle is one of the few chips he has to move to replenish talent in the top-six and draft picks in the system. The key for Burke will be to strike at the proper time. Burke could afford to sand bag a bit on deals because he knows he has Kaberle's NTC lifted in the summer -- he's not forced to make any deals if he doesn't want to - yet. But time is running out for Burke. He can make the claim that he would want to re-sign Kaberle, but I'm not buying it. He invested too much into defenders this summer, and acquired Phaneuf for a reason.

Although many fans are upset at the fact Kaberle wasn't dealt this past deadline, Burke may be better off holding onto him until the summer. Kaberle submitted a list of 3 teams at the deadline.. Burke will have a chance to deal with 29 in the summer. Not to mention there are teams who are looking to move cap space (i.e. Chicago) if they can, and teams desperate to make the playoffs (Atlanta).

At the end of the day, it should be interesting to see how it all plays out. There is no doubt that if Burke can land in the vicinity of a 1st, 2nd and a top-six forward for Kaberle that it will go a long way into easing the pain of giving up top selections to a division rival.