After years, upon years of speculation it seems ... wait for it ... that Kaberle may in fact be on the way out. Yes, I know, we've heard this song and dance before only to be let down by Kaberle enforcing his NTC or the market 'drying up' on him. But make no mistake, all of Burke's moves to date signal the departure of Kaberle.One could argue that dealing Kaberle has been in progress for a year, dating back to when Burke added Exelby, Komisarek and Beauchemin to a defensive core that, on paper at least, seemed well stocked. Add in Phaneuf, Aulie, and the emergence of Gunnarsson and (to a lesser extent) Olympian Korbinian Holzer it seems to make sense that Kaberle should be dealt for forward help.
Now, this isn't something to rejoice about .. far from it. Kaberle is a great puck-moving defender, and if he is moved he'll likely be missed as a key ingredient on the back end. But you can't help it, as a fan, to be excited to see what return he'll receive. I mean, even fans of other teams want to know what Kaberle will finally be able to fetch in a trade just so they can mock those crazy Maple Leaf fans who thought he'd bring in two first round picks and a top-line player.
Now, recent rumors floating around out there have targeted a handful of teams that have serious interest in acquiring the 32-year-old Tomas Kaberle. These teams include Buffalo, Anaheim, New Jersey, Columbus as the heavily interest. Other teams that are rumored to have interest are Tampa Bay and Florida, but both teams seem unlikely to give up youth/top-six forwards for Kaberle as both are in 'rebuilding' phases of their team.
I'll work backwards from the listed teams:
Columbus:
2010 Draft Picks: 4th, 34th, 58th, 94th, 124th, 154th, 184th 192nd
Columbus has been a rumored trade partner with the Maple Leafs for a long time, but what do they have that Burke would want and they would be willing to give up? To me, not much. They won't be moving the 4th overall selection, but the 34th selection has some value. Jakub Voracek has been linked as potential trade bait, but I don't see Columbus moving a young play-making forward as skilled as Voracek in a deal for Kaberle.
New Jersey:
2010 Draft Picks: 38th, 48th, 61st, 80th, 110th, 170th, 200th
Even though they've been rumored as 'front runners' for Kaberle, I find it unlikely given they lack what Burke wants in a deal for Kaberle. With no first round pick, and no true top-six wingers that fit in with the age requirement, on the surface it doesn't seem like it makes much sense.
David Clarkson would be of value to Burke, but as a centerpiece in a Kaberle deal? I don't think so, but it depends on how much value Burke places on him - not us fans. If he feels he could be a 20g - 50pt player next season on the 2nd line he may be valuable due to his intangibles. The 38th pick would be of value also, and after that a prospect like a Nick Palmieri or Adam Henrique would fit in with the team Burke wants to build. But is it worth trading Kaberle for a 3rd line winger (potential 2nd line if you want to be generous), a 38th overall and a B level prospect? If you were the Maple Leafs looking to trade for a top-pairing puck-moving defender do you think that would get it done? Unlikely. But what if there was a conditional 1st in 2011 based on Kaberle re-signing? That would be an interesting scenario...
Anaheim 2010 Draft Picks: 20th, 24th, 42nd, 50th, 102nd, 132nd
No, Kaberle will not be dealt for Bobby Ryan, don't be absurd. But if he can't land Ryan what does Anaheim have of value? Not much.
Anaheim makes sense as having a need for Kaberle. They stockpiled a bunch of youth with the Pronger deal, and they do have Visnovsky, but if Neidermayer retires they could use a legit top-pairing defender.
Anaheim could offer 24th overall, but they don't have much in the way to offer player wise unless Ryan is involved - which, if I'm a betting man, he won't be. Now, if Burke wanted to offer Kaberle + Schenn + another asset then maybe there will be some talk about Ryan (and Ryan alone). As absurd it may be to suggest Ryan to the Maple Leafs, there is some fit there. The Maple Leafs want a big top-six winger, Burke drafted him behind Crosby, Fletcher wanted him not to long ago, Toronto is in the East so Ryan is unlikely to come back and haunt Anaheim. These are just examples, but in the end the idea of Ryan is all pie in the sky.
If Anaheim wanted to offer up a package of future's, it would entice Burke. Like I said previously, the 24th overall is of interest, and I'm sure a player like Peter Holland would draw interest, but I think Burke is looking for something tangible. I'd be very, very surprised if Burke didn't get an NHL roster player back in a deal involving Kaberle.
Buffalo
2010 Draft Picks: 23rd overall, 68th, 75th, 83rd, 98th, 143rd, 173rd, 203rd, 208th
Now this is a team that makes sense to me as a potential trade partner. With two of their veteran defenders heading to free-agency in Henrick Tallinder and Toni Lydman, Buffalo may be in the market, or should be in the market to add a legit top-pairing defender into their fold. And really, the idea of a Tyler Myers/Tomas Kaberle pairing sounds pretty dominating.
But again, the question is what would Buffalo give up? Right away Jason Pominville is a player who comes to mind. He hasn't had the same type of season he had since he put up 80 points in 2007-08 but he is a good scorer, point producer, and is in the right age bracket (27) that would fit in well with the Maple Leafs. He does make a lot of money for his production at a 5.3m cap hit, but there is no doubting that the Maple Leafs could use his skill. Moving him also opens up some cap space for Buffalo, but would they want to move him for a player on a one-year deal?
I don't think Kaberle would have much of a problem re-signing in Buffalo. If his preference is to stay in the East, it seems ideal given the proximity to Toronto - thus not having to move his family too far. Pominville may seem like a high price to pay, but when dealing inter-division there is usually a high price to be paid.
Another player of interest would be Zack Kassian. With his legal troubles, and Buffalo putting negotiations with him on a hold, he may be more available now than ever. That's not to say he'd just be a throw in either. Buffalo wants to start developing some sizable forwards to compliment their top-six so moving Kassian won't be easy for them.
And what of Drew Stafford? His leash seems to be shortening each season with Buffalo management and he could be a target to be moved. Would Burke accept a Stafford + 1st round pick for Tomas Kaberle? I'd say probably not, but it is comparable to the return Brian Campbell received when he was dealt to San Jose. Steve Bernier, a player who had 2nd line potential (but needed a change of scenery) and a 1st round selection. The difference is Kaberle would be around for a full season before being a UFA, whereas Campbell was a two month rental.
In conclusion ...
It would seem Buffalo is the best destination for Kaberle. They seem to be the best 'fit' in terms of what Burke would want, Buffalo could offer, and where Kaberle would be most likely to sign long term. But on the other hand, would Burke want to send him to a division rival? Having to play Kaberle multiple times a year and have him haunt the Maple Leafs? This is another factor to consider.
Will he be dealt to Buffalo? No one knows, and Burke is on record saying Darcy Regier (Buffalo's GM) is one of the hardest to deal with. Either way, we're bound to find out in the coming weeks. Until then, all we can do is sit back and continue to speculate, trying not to let our imaginations don't run too wild just to be disappointed when the return is not what 'we' would have liked.
